Brexit and the IT Spending in Europe and North America - Gartner Report

Worldwide IT spending is forecast to be flat in 2016, totaling $3.41 trillion, according to Gartner, Inc. This is up from last quarter's forecast of negative 0.5 percent growth. The change in the forecast is mainly due to currency fluctuations.

"The current Gartner Worldwide IT Spending Forecast assumes that the U.K. would not exit the European Union. With the U.K.'s exit, there will likely be an erosion in business confidence and price increases which will impact U.K., Western Europe and worldwide IT spending," said John-David Lovelock, research vice president at Gartner.

While the U.K. has embarked on a process to change, that change is yet to be defined. The "leave" vote will quickly affect IT spending in the U.K. and in Europe while other changes will take longer. Staff may be the largest immediate issue. The long-term uncertainty in work status will make the U.K. less attractive to new foreign workers. Retaining current non-U.K. staff and having less access to qualified new hires from abroad will impair U.K. IT Departments.

New Options Are Disrupting Established Markets

"2016 marked the start of an amazing dichotomy. The pace of change in IT will never again be as slow as it is now, but global IT spending growth is best described as lackluster," said  Lovelock. "2016 is the year that business focus turns to digital business, the Internet of Things and even algorithmic business. To fund these new initiatives, many businesses are turning to cost optimization efforts centering around the new digital alternatives (for example, SaaS instead of software licenses, voice over LTE instead of cellular and digital personal assistants instead of people) to save money, simplify operations and speed time to value. It is precisely this new breadth of alternatives to traditional IT that will fundamentally reshape what is bought, who buys it and how much will be spent."

The Gartner Worldwide IT Spending Forecast is the leading indicator of major technology trends across the hardware, software, IT services and telecom markets. Global IT and business executives use these highly anticipated quarterly reports to recognize market opportunities and challenges, and base their critical business decisions on proven methodologies rather than guesswork.

Data center systems' spending is projected to reach $174 bn in 2016, a 2 percent increase from 2015. The market is driven by strong growth in the server markets in Greater China and Western Europe and a strong refresh cycle in the North American enterprise network equipment market.

Global enterprise software spending is on pace to total $332 bn, a 5.8 percent increase from 2015. North America is the dominant regional driving force behind the growth. It is responsible for $11.6 billion of the $24 bn dollar increase in 2016. At a segment level, the fastest-growing market continues to be customer relationship management software.

Devices spending is projected to total $627 bn by the end of 2016. The lackluster economic issues surrounding Russia, Japan and Brazil will hold back demand and worldwide PC recovery in 2016. Additionally, Windows 10 upgrades have further led to PC buying being delayed — consumers are willing to use older PCs longer, once they are upgraded to Windows 10.

Spending in the IT services market is expected to increase 3.7 percent, totaling $898 bn. Japan is the fastest-growing region for IT services spending with 8.9 percent growth. With an increase in digital business projects, Japanese companies are starting to better understand that they need consulting support to transform their business and advice around new technologies from consultancy companies. Critically, they now see real value in those services and consequently are willing to pay for the services.

Communications services spending is projected to total $1.38 trillion in 2016, down 1.4 percent from 2015. Japan leads the growth in communications services, with 8.3 percent growth, while Greater China adds the most dollars to spend with just more than $8.3 bn. Eastern Europe, Western Europe and North America all are forecast to decrease as price wars and declining usage affect virtually all communications services markets.

More detailed analysis on the outlook for the IT industry will be presented in the complimentary webinar "IT Spending Forecast, 2Q16 Update: New Options Are Disrupting Established Markets" taking place July 12 at 11 a.m. EDT. During the webinar, Gartner analysts will walk through three different examples of digital alternatives and demonstrate the effects that they are having on the markets that they play in as well as the deleterious effects they can have on adjacent markets.

Gartner's IT spending forecast methodology relies heavily on rigorous analysis of sales by thousands of vendors across the entire range of IT products and services. Gartner uses primary research techniques, complemented by secondary research sources, to build a comprehensive database of market size data on which to base its forecast.

The Gartner quarterly IT spending forecast delivers a unique perspective on IT spending across hardware, software, IT services and telecommunications segments. These reports help Gartner clients understand market opportunities and challenges.

Gartner clients can read more on the Brexit impact on IT spending in "Brexit Will Disrupt CIO and Vendor Plans Through 2018."