Convergence is a term rendered hackneyed by overuse, much before it would blossom. Call that growing old without growing up...

As a phenomenon though, convergence continues its march surely and steadily, promising to remain the underlying theme of all future networks. The blending of voice and data networks is yet far from over, and the seamlessness between wired and wireless networks has only partially been achieved.

Doubt that? Well, look at things from a user's perspective and you will agree more. As a user, won't you like to receive your mobile as well as landline calls on a single device? Won't you like to have just one number and stop bothering about whether you connect to a cellular network or a fixed-line network, or to both? How about choosing your device depending on location? Maybe all of that, plus a lot more, eh!

Well, that's probably a big task for the guys who work to make that happen yesterday for you. Services like call forwarding are probably a glimpse of such things to come.

Devices like smart phones, PDAs, et al already cater to your multiple needs like computing, browsing, e-mailing, and telephony. There are limitations though, largely because the networks are yet to converge practically.

Yes, convergence may appear to have taken place when we look at the number of service provider networks. But then it looks grossly off the mark from an access-side perspective.

So, where lie the gaps?

Well, the gap lies among various standards, networks and business models; between countries, regulations and interest groups; and most obviously between what users demand and what vendors and service providers offer.

Sounds more like chaos than a gap, right? We better discuss something more addressable, maybe a common challenge.

Mother Internet
Yes, the biggest challenge lies with the mother of all next-generation networks-the Internet, though that's only natural, as the big opportunities also lie with the Internet.

Let us look at some of these mega opportunities: VoIP, whose biggest lure is perhaps low-cost long-distance telephony. Also, MPLS-based IP VPN, which is fast emerging as a secure and cost-effective alternative to leased lines for enterprises.

The Internet was not designed to be a telephony network. It was not developed to be an enterprise-wide secure network either. It was a god of smaller things, whose ability to adapt to other network environments and simulate those has been striking. This has drawn a flux of innovations to the Internet and helped develop a whole new universe around it.

Making VoIP comparable with toll quality is arduous not only because of the complexities of networking involved, but also due to the conflicting interests of the stakeholders.

Convergence is not just about establishing protocols between the PSTN and IP networks, but also about having meaningful dialogues between old-economy carriers and dot-com companies.

Nobody really owns the Internet and so monopoly is not possible and no one has the financial capability to do so. So while Yahoo, Skype or Vonage would love to make VoIP toll-quality, an AT&T, BT or BSNL would like to delay the phenomenon till they are ready to reap its advantages.

Indeed, the Internet is marred by all banes of democracy. But then it also carries the vital force of democracy with it which keeps the ball rolling. The Internet economy keeps getting bigger and bigger and so does the lure, with each passing day.

The New Building Blocks
The digitization of voice and content has gone hand in hand with the spread of the Internet, both complementing and supplementing each other's growth. Take for instance, VoIP, for which softswitches and media gateways are some key building blocks. The adoption of these equipments in service provider networks has been somewhat slow so far, but is expected to gear up in the near future.

A big push in this regard came from the $1 bn deal with Ericsson in August 2006. The deal envisages Ericsson to upgrade Bharti's network with a mobile softswitch solution that would pave the way to an all-IP network.

Other service providers, including Reliance and Tata Teleservices, have also deployed softswitches in their networks, though the scales are different.

Likewise, multi protocol label switching (MPLS) is a key building block of IP VPN networks. Much has been written about the beauty of MPLS, which can converse with both legacy and new networks. Its simplicity allows incumbents to protect their investments in ATM and frame relay networks while offering IP VPN services competitively.

Beyond Switching and Routing
While switches and routers remain the foundation on which networks are built, the market is maturing and looking beyond. Also, switches are no longer confined to layers 2 and 3, but have entered the realm of layers 4 through 7.

Growth in L4-7 switches has been much higher than the overall growth in switches for the second quarter of 2006 over the prior-year period, albeit on a smaller base.

Vendors are also realizing that there is more to next-generation networks than just TCP and IP. Some smaller companies like Netscaler, Redline, Peribit, Packeteer, etc. have successfully demonstrated how special-purpose network appliances can take the load off traditional switches and routers and significantly speed up the network.

These specialized network appliances are designed to do a small piece of the work. Typically, these appliances perform tasks like WAN optimization, acceleration, secure content and application delivery, integrated network message routing, and so on.

Datacenter Boom
There has been a phenomenal rise of social networking sites like Myspace and Orkut, and the online encyclopedia Wikipedia has been a huge success. The surge in Youtube's popularity is too well known to discuss again.

In the not-too-long run, this will dictate a shift in the way the network is developed and aligned. This will lead to a paradigm shift in networking, though the process itself may remain transparent to users.

More immediately, however, the datacenter switch market will witness a strong growth, as the Googles and Yahoos of the world are making huge investments in these areas.

In August 2006, for instance, Google reportedly said that it would invest at least $1 bn for a 1 mn sq ft datacenter in a special economic zone in Andhra Pradesh.

Talking of other areas, investments in mobile networks will continue unabated. The growth story here is too big to be overlooked. BSNL's $6 bn GSM project, which went to Ericsson, Nokia and Alcatel-ITI combine, has easily dwarfed all other networking investments so far.

Broadband and triple-play services will also be vying for limelight in the next year.

Some disappointment may be witnessed on the 3G front though, as non-availability of spectrum may delay a takeoff.

It will be interesting to see the interplay of these services and how they contribute to the rev-up of convergence, which is nothing but a multiplay of services.

Deepak Kumar
maildqindia@cybermedia.co.in
The author is senior manager, Communications Research, IDC India

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